The Planning Fallacy and Optimism Bias
Have you ever started a project and found it took much longer and cost more than you expected? You’re not alone. This is a common experience known as the planning fallacy, which is influenced by our natural optimism bias. Let’s dive into these concepts and see how they affect our decisions.
Key Ideas
Planning Fallacy:
This is when people underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions, and overestimate the benefits.
Optimism Bias:
This is our tendency to believe that we are more likely to experience positive events and less likely to experience negative events.
My Story of a Failed Project
More than thirty years ago, I started a project that taught me a lot about these biases. I’ve thought about it often and even shared it in my lectures. Initially, I believed I understood the project’s future well, but reality proved otherwise.
The Beginnings: Along with my colleague Amos, I studied the planning fallacy. Later, with Dan Lovallo, we proposed that decision-making often suffers from optimistic bias. We found that executives make decisions based on overly positive forecasts instead of a balanced view of potential gains and risks. This leads them to:
•Overestimate benefits
• Underestimate costs
• Ignore potential problems
The Curriculum Project: I initiated a project to develop a new curriculum. At first, I thought I was making smart decisions, but I failed to ensure the project was feasible. Despite new data showing our early optimism was unfounded, we continued without revising our plans. This was due to:
•Sunk-Cost Fallacy: Continuing a project just because we had already invested a lot in it.
• Lethargy: An unwillingness to rethink and confront the new facts.
Lessons Learned
Adopt an Outside View: It’s important to get an external perspective to assess a project realistically.
Avoid the Sunk-Cost Fallacy: Make decisions based on current information, not past investments.
Rational Planning: Always plan rationally and be willing to change course when new information comes up.
Everyday Application
We all face situations where we might be too optimistic. Here’s how to avoid these biases:
•Get External Opinions: Seek advice from others who can provide a fresh perspective. •Regularly Review Plans: Keep revisiting and revising your plans based on the latest information.
Conclusion
Reflecting on past experiences and recognizing biases like the planning fallacy and optimism bias can lead to better decision-making. Embrace rational planning, be open to changing your plans, and avoid letting past investments dictate your future actions.
